For as long as Bibi Netanyahu has been in office, he has wanted to target Iran. He now has his chance. Will he play the long game?

As the world now wonders what, if anything, Israel’s response to the Islamic Regime of Iran’s weekend attack will be, it’s worth zooming out to better understand the stakes and next steps in the decades-long rivalry. A rivalry of two governments whose people have always been friendly, amical, and never hold any enmity for one another; but whose governments have emerged as regional rivals.

The Islamic Republic was weighing its response to Israel’s 4/1 strike on Damascus in a building adjacent to the consulate/embassy, which Iran viewed as part of their diplomatic grounds in the Syrian Capital. This small-but-important-detail led to the subsequent diplomatic jockeying, but it was likely that the slate of IRGC assassinations at the direct/indirect hands of Israel would force Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to give in the to the more hardline constituency of the regime and act.

Before breaking down the efficiency, effectiveness, efficacy of the attack, how did we get here?

– April 1: Israel kills 7 IRGC members in Damascus. Location of target makes this unlike the assassination of Qasem Suleymani, in 2020.

– April 1-10: using Ramadan & Eid Al Fitr to buy time, Islamic Republic of Iran

a) internal: evaluates retaliation options internally, directly from Iran and indirectly through proxies;

b) discusses extent of political, financial & eventual military support from main sponsors Russia & China in escalation – will Moscow backstop Iran when it has its hands full in Ukraine, though clearly on the offensive with long term industrial, financial and human resource advantage.

Wait, are we in World War III?

No, but nothing about Iran can be discussed without the larger context of the “World War III” dynamic we are beginning to notice in a slow-brew since 9/11 with the “Imperi-Allies” (USA, UK, Western EU, Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan, Germany, India, etc.) on one side and the so-called “Axis of Resistance” (led by Russia, China, Iran, Syria, Yemen, Iraq, Lebanon, Venezuela, Pakistan, etc.) on the other.

c) explores Gaza cease fire option & other concessions in lieu of response, to both save face and emerge a hero in Muslim world. – April 11: other govts are notified of pending response, warn staff & cancel flights – April 12: Hezbollah begins firing missiles into Israel, possibly testing David’s Sling & Iron Dome air defenses and depleting defense resources, or merely for theatrical purposes as calm before the storm.

– April 13: IR launches drones & missiles over Iraq, Jordan, Syria etc.

Before Iran’s response, there was a likelihood that none of these events leading to and including Damascus would have been memorable in the future. But the regime’s response changes dynamics, even if the USA and Biden administration has both urged Israel to consider its actions and suggested it will not participate in any counter. The US – and UK, Jordan, Saudi Arabia – did participate in the defense of Israel, which explain the tale of the tape when it comes to Iran’s onslaught, which some conclude was largely for show (not only for its internal hardline base) but also for the region and global audience.

What Was Really At Stake For Israel?

Of the 100+ missiles (and drones!) Iran sent over,

– 50% of all the ballistic missiles that Iran launched at Israel failed during the launch or fell on the way due to technical malfunctions.
– 60 made it to Israel, 6 made it through the Iron Dome and/or David’s Sling.
While early reports claimed that 99% of Iran’s projectiles were stopped, that 10% of the missiles that made it to Israel passed through is a source of worry for a state whose creation was based on “never again.” Israel’s safety, and PM Netanyahu’s promise to keep Israelis safe, is part of what’s at stake here, given the military imbalance between the two. Israel dropped one bomb and killed 7 humans; Iran threw a 100+ hail marries and did emotional and psychological damage more than physical.

What did Iran accomplish with the attack, the first attack Iran has launched from Iran in 1000+ years?

Iran’s Deterrence?

It did show that its missiles can reach Israel, and be somewhat precise when they get there – if they can get through. While none of those missiles were supersonic (which Israel’s defensive systems cannot allegedly stop), then the nightmare scenario for citizens of Israel is a nuclear warhead on one of those missiles. Which takes us to what Bibi has long sought, to take out Iran’s nuclear program/facilities, if not take out the whole regime. He’s not alone, of course, with America’s general Wesley Clark including Iran in that infamous list of seven nations the USA was going to regime change after Iraq, Afghanistan, Lebanon, Libya, Somalia, Sudan (all having seen their “states end,” to quote Neo-conservative Republic Paul Wolfowitz). So ironically, while Israel now has an as-valid-as-Iran’s right to respond, will they?

What Will Israel’s Response Be?

  1. None. Unlikely. Israel has never failed to retaliate for an attack. We’re talking about people who inspired the movie Munich. Before that, Simon Wiesenthal codified revenge and justice as policy. But there’s always a first for everything, and ironically, it’s possible that Israel does not officially respond and reacts in more covert, intermittent ways, and keep the regime on their toes. So unlikely, but not impossible.

2. Kill IRGC and/or scientists. In the past, and in what led to this latest uptick in the barometer, Israel has taken out IRGC members, scientists and there’s no reason to suspect they will not use this as a reason to target more regime members.

Will Israel Target Civilians?

What Israel’s 4/1 strike demonstrated is their precise-as-hell nature. Personally, I echo the views of many Iranians that Israel will more than likely not target any civilians. While Israel has not hesitated to kill in Gaza, Israel does not want to kill any (civilian) Iranians, it makes no sense.

While Iran apparently warned Israel via other nations of the pending attack and gave defence systems ample time to prevent casualties, the reality is were it not for those defence systems, Israel would have certainly suffered casualties. Thus, that doesn’t absolve Iran here, if we will be candid. I actually think if Israel responds directly to Iran’s weekend salvo, then it may actually not kill anyone, including IRGC members. To be fair, I also think it’s possible that Iran didn’t exactly warn Israel the way some suggest.

Will Israel Avoid Deaths?

3. Target Infrastructure

Because Iran didn’t kill anyone in the attacks, there’s a chance that Israel teases and taunts the IR by purposely avoid any deaths, but then upping the ante with infrastructure targets, including military and nuclear… though Iran learned from Israel’s attack on Iraq’s Osirak nuclear plant and build their assets deep inside the mountain. The USA has a certain type of weapons that can cause damage even if underground, but the US has balked at joining Israel’s reaction, and even discouraged them from doing anything. With an election in November, you can’t fault Joe Biden for wanting to sit this out.

Tit-for-tat brouhaha, or Franz Ferdinand type event?

The issue here is that Iran has basically demonstrated some capacity to create risk for Israelis, and it has stated that if Israel responds, it will retaliate again. Iran viewed its Saturday offensive as a settling of accounts, and not a continuation of hostilities. We can and should criticize the IR on fair grounds, but Iran does not seek direct conflict with Israel; it’s been Israel who has been egging Iran on, not only to pull America into the fray, but merely to be able to once and for all eliminate the perceived nuclear threat from Iran.

4. Proxies

Whether you like conspiracy theories or not, Israel (or Mossad, etc) having “created” ISIS is a popular one. Israel has its own tentacles in the region, and using various elements inside Iran to destabilize things is something that Jewish media has been clamouring. After all, that’s part of how the internal assassinations have taken place. The real damage Israel is inflicting Iran is stoking separatist rhetoric. Ironic, since the only thing Iranians agree on is territorial integrity. We can’t even agree whether we should support our football (soccer) team Melli, Nelson Mandela be damned. 

Israeli media like the Jerusalem Post has been elevating some of the Kurd/Baluch separatist theme, which again doesn’t really have much momentum inside of Iran but whose elements could certainly be used to cause damage. However, why would Israel want to waste this opportunity for that when they have been clamouring for action for so long?

As side note: the only other thing most Iranians agree on is the unpopularity of the leftist MEK. But that’s the thing America and Canadian politicians have been doing, in the US’ case seeing former VP Mike Pence and Secretatary of State Mike Pompeo speak at MEK events, reading their talking points. This may be a risk that Iranians are overconfidently downplaying, in the eventual possible scenario where a power vacuum creates an opening for someone, armed, ready to go, and financed by a patient underwriter.

5. Air Strikes

In 1981, Israel could not reach Iraq’s Osiraq. Today, the Israeli Air Force F-35I Adir strike fighters can reach Iran without aerial refueling. Side note, if you are into military strategy, the story of Iranian Air Force’s airstrike on the W-3 airfield in the Al-Waleed air base is one for the ages. As was the case then, when Iranian pilots flew north, then west/south along the Turkish/Iraqi border before hitting the most western area of Iraq alongside the Jordanian border required a handful of refuelling. Thus, the issue there is the path.

While Jordan and Saudi allowed Israel et al. use its airspace to shoot down flying projectile over its space, it would likely not cede airspace to the Jewish State. Azerbaijan may, and in a normal world Azerbaijan may not want to take that risk with its neighbour to its south-east, but Azerbaijan covets Iranian soil in the north-west and the spectre of an Israeli-Azerbaijani alliance, especially given the separatist threat to destabilize Iran should be of great concern to Iranians.

The IAF’s strength is via air, and I would not put anything outside of the real of Jewish ingenuity.

For this reason, and that this started when Israel hit a building next to its embassy on what it deemed its compound but more importantly, to avoid hitting Iran on Iranian soil, then it may target assets in non-Iranian territory, and that could mean ships, or other such assets. But, what would that really change, given this golden opportunity?

6. Cyberattacks

You can imagine some kind of cyberattack will be part of the operation, Israel has an open hand to take a shot, so while it will come at a risk of further retaliation, I suspect Israel won’t be able to avoid the temptation.

Iron Shield, you said?

The defensive Iron Dome is self-explanatory. Israel named its response Iron Shield, not Iron Sword, Spike, Spear etc. suggesting this will not be a single strike (a la April 1 in Damascus), but a series of acts that more or less combine into a more impactful counter-strike that may or may not include material damage to Iran’s nuclear facilities, IRGC bases, as well a strike at Hezbollah in Lebanon, who opened up Iran’s weekend response with missiles Friday night. Why hit a ship in international waters when you have an excuse to hit higher-value targets – the nukes – even if it doesn’t destroy but merely delay things? The other added benefit for Israel is to use this to show off its firepower to not just respond to Tehran, but also warn Arab states to step off.

What is more or less impossible is any kind of all-out assault on Iranian soil: there is no real way to attack by sea, and by soil Iran is no longer surrounded by American forces in Afghanistan and Iraq to the east and west, respectively. One reason America has urged caution is for America to conquer Iraq and Afghanistan, it took months to transport the tanks, trucks, vans needed for such an endeavour – but again, anyone even thinking of such a response by Israel or America is ill-informed. Israel will strike from above, and focus on nuclear facilities, because that’s what it has sought to do for decades, and now has the chance.

Iran demonstrated that its missiles can and will reach Israel. That will cause discomfort, for sure, but that may be a risk Israel may be willing to take if it can set back the Iranian nuclear program decades, if not for good.